EURUSD CONTINUES TO PURSUE THE 1.20 LEVEL
With U.S. 10-year bond yields stabilizing at 1.55%, the dollar's outflows are maintaining activity above 1.20 in EURUSD parity. Data flow was particularly calm on the U.S. side throughout the week, with current home sales data contracting by 3.7% in yesterday's session, contrary to expectations. Applications for weekly unemployment benefits fell short of expectations with 547,000 people.
On the European side, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, raising its policy rate to 0% at -0.50% and marginal lending at 0.25%. The ECB, on the other hand, has not changed the total amount of €1.85 trillion of the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Programme (PEPP). At its previous meeting, the ECB increased the pace of asset purchases in response to rising long-term bond rates. At this meeting, we see that the change in the pace of the ECB's bond-buying program reiterates the statement that it should end shortly before raising interest rates. While ecb president Lagarde emphasized that she expected an increase in inflation with the decrease in the epidemic, it was important to note that the data indicated that economic activity could contract in the first quarter.
Following all these developments, it can be said that the fact that prices remained above 1.20 in the parity, which is in the momentum of a slight retreat, was decisive in terms of limiting the decreases. Thus, parity can be expected to gradually maintain its upward potential to resistance levels of 1.2057 and 1.21. However, it is worth considering the support levels of 1.1958 and 1.19 at the close, which may be below the support level of 1.20.